4.6 Scheduling
The work on this project should be carried out in three phases: modeling, field trials and full-scale implementation. An example schedule is presented here.
Phase I. Modeling. Computer modeling of potential climate outcomes based on varying levels of coverage will be performed. It is expected that the impact of covering 67,000 square miles/yr for 60 years will be evaluated, as will lesser amounts of coverage, down to the smallest amount that the models can differentiate from the control (no coverage). Modeling of weather changes with varying coverage will also be done.
The modeling work will be completed by mid 2004. All modeling work will be completed before initiation of field trials. If the modeling indicates that the full-scale project or some meaningful subset can be carried out without disruptive effects on the climate, then development of equipment and materials for field trials can proceed.
Phase II. Field Trials. The specially engineered plastic for the surface cover will be developed and subjected to accelerated laboratory testing to predict its longevity in the field. The first generation of geovacs will be designed. The engineered plastic and geovacs will be evaluated in field tests conducted on a 20-hectare (50 acre) plot of desert in Nevada. This work will be completed in 2005.
A larger field trial will be carried out in 2006 in which 1 square mile will be covered. Monitoring will also be performed using ground stations, UAVs and satellites.
A still larger field trial will be conducted in 2007-2009 in which an area large enough to cause detectable modification in local weather (10-100 square miles) is covered, monitored and maintenance performed.
Finally, in 2010-2012, field trials will be conducted over a large enough area (1000-5000 square miles) to achieve detectable modification in local, regional and global climate and for which results can be compared with those of computer models. By 2010, it is expected that global climate models will be able to resolve areas as small as 100 square miles. Final selection of locations for full-scale implementation will be made. Modification and ratification of an international climate change treaty that includes provisions for use of surface albedo enhancement will be completed.
Phase III. Full-Scale Implementation. Beginning in 2013 and continuing until 2073, full-scale coverage of desert areas will begin. The start date here is 2013 and not 2010 as referenced in the earlier text. However, the full 60-year period is covered.
This is an ambitious schedule. However, the gravity of the situation requires that an accelerated research and development program be undertaken as soon as possible, since the field tests have to be conducted before any large-scale coverage is initiated. Nature doesn’t grant extensions.
