2.0 Executive Summary

2.1 The Climate Change Problem

Global climate change caused by global warming is probably the most important environmental problem of the 21st century. It is caused by the greenhouse effect in which trace gases in the atmosphere (water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, halocarbons and ozone) absorb solar radiation re-radiated by the earth’s surface as infrared radiation. These gases re-radiate it back to the surface, doubling the amount of infrared or thermal radiation in the lower atmosphere.

Burning of fossil fuels and food production since 1750 have added to this infrared radiation by increasing the levels of these greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere. This additional anthropogenic radiative forcing, expressed in Wm-2, nearly two thirds of which is due to carbon dioxide, has caused the earth’s temperature to increase by 0.5?C since 1850, resulting in melting glaciers and warmer nights among other effects observed to date. By 2100, the temperature may increase another 1.4-5.8?C due to additional GHG emissions as countries continue to industrialize and the world population increases. Left unchecked, the climate change caused by these emissions may cause loss of species, reduce crop yields and arable land and eventually return the earth to an ice age.

2.2 Attempts to Solve the Climate Change Problem by Regulation of Emissions

Attempts to solve the climate change problem by regulation of GHG emissions through international treaties have so far failed. The Kyoto Protocol, which was supposed to be a first step in reducing emissions, called for about a 5% reduction relative to a 1990 baseline by 2012 for 38 developed nations. Disputes over the use of existing forests and farmlands as offsets for carbon dioxide emissions caused the U.S. to withdraw from the treaty process. Concessions made to other nations as well as the U.S., mean that GHG emissions will be reduced at most by 2% from their 1990 levels. Because developing nations were not included in this first round of cuts, global emissions will continue to rise.