On the whole, fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) are too expensive, an estimated 10-100X the cost of conventional vehicles and replacement of the present fuel production and refueling infrastructure in the U.S. alone (180,000 gas stations) could cost $500 billion. In lieu of FCVs direct introduction as replacements to today’s vehicles, it is more likely that electric motor hybrids (HEVs or hybrid electric vehicles) combining large batteries with gasoline engines are the next generation of vehicles (61). GM, for example, reversed course in late 2002, backing away from plans to introduce FCVs by 2010 to instead concentrate on selling 1 million HEV cars, pickups and sport utility vehicles (SUVs) by 2005, less than two years from now (67, 68).

HEVs presently on the market and achieving around 50 mpg are compact cars (Toyota Prius, Honda Insight) first introduced in 1997, but costing $5000 more than comparable sized conventional vehicles. Automakers are also still losing money on them at present, partly due to the small production runs (69). Only 25,000 have been sold worldwide each year to date, a drop in the bucket out of the total of 17 million vehicles sold in the U.S. alone each year and more than 50 million worldwide (70). They also have to compete with sport utility vehicles (SUVs) that on average get less than 20 mpg, that are now half of all vehicles sold and that provide nearly all of the profit of automakers. As long as fuel prices remain low in the U.S. and most other places, there is no incentive for anyone to buy fuel-efficient vehicles of any design.

A fleet composed of only 50-mpg HEVs could reduce GHG emissions from transportation enough that it might take 25 years for emission levels to return to a baseline. More importantly, since it takes on average 15 years to turn over the U.S. fleet and 20 world wide (71), if a fleet with 25% hybrids by 2025 could be foreseen, all of the fleet might be hybrids by 2040. Some forecasters think the next step would be for the gasoline engine in a HEV to be replaced by the fuel cell and then the electric motor battery assisted FCV would take over, perhaps by 2040 (61). The battery would reduce somewhat the quantity of hydrogen required, thereby reducing, but not eliminating the tank pressurization problem. We believe 2060 is a more realistic estimate for the transition to hybrid FCVs to take place.Unfortunately, these forecasts, as optimistic as they are, mean that transportation will continue to be a major contributor to GHG emissions well into the 21st century.